Odds and ProbabilityNo. 022
What Is Dutching? Spreading One Stake Across Several Outcomes
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Dutching is a way of backing more than one outcome in the same event, with the stakes sized so that the return is identical whichever of your selections wins. It is common in horse racing, where someone might fancy three runners in a field of twelve, and it also turns up in football correct-score markets and golf outright betting. The result behaves like a single bet on "one of these" at a shorter combined price.
It is a staking technique, not a way around the bookmaker's margin. Every slice of the stake is still placed at a price that includes the house's cut.
How the stakes are worked out
The idea rests on implied probability. Each price is converted into a percentage, and the stake on each selection is set in proportion to that percentage. The steps for decimal odds are:
- Pick the total return you would like if any selection wins. Call it R.
- For each selection, divide R by its decimal price. That is its stake.
- Add the stakes together to get the total outlay.
- Your profit if one of them wins is R minus the total outlay. If none wins, the whole outlay is lost.
Turning a decimal price into a percentage takes one division: 1 divided by the price. A price of 4.0 therefore implies 25%.
A worked example
Three runners in an invented race are priced at 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0. Aiming for a return of 100 units:
| Selection | Decimal price | Stake (100 ÷ price) | Return if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runner A | 4.0 | 25.00 | 100 |
| Runner B | 5.0 | 20.00 | 100 |
| Runner C | 6.0 | 16.67 | 100 (rounded) |
| Total | — | 61.67 | — |
If any of the three wins, the return is about 100 units on an outlay of 61.67, so the profit is roughly 38.33. If a different runner wins, all 61.67 is gone. In effect you have bought a single bet at a combined decimal price of about 1.62 on "A, B or C".
Checking the combined chance
The three prices imply 25%, 20% and about 16.7%, which add up to roughly 61.7%. That matches the outlay as a share of the return, which is no coincidence: the total stake as a fraction of R is exactly the sum of the implied probabilities. It is a handy cross-check when doing the sums by hand.
What dutching every outcome reveals
Try covering an entire market and the cost of betting appears in plain sight. Take a two-player tennis match priced at 1.80 on each side. Staking 50 on each player returns 90 whatever happens, so 100 staked becomes 90 returned: a guaranteed loss of 10%. That gap is the bookmaker's margin, explained in our piece on the vig in sports betting. Dutching a subset of outcomes does not avoid that margin; it just carries a share of it into every slice.
Where people use it
- Racing fields. Backing two or three runners to win rather than one. Bets on the finishing order are a different animal, covered in our guide to forecast and tricast bets.
- Correct-score markets. Covering a small group of likely scorelines in football.
- Golf and other outrights. Splitting a stake across several players in a large field.
- Handicap and draw outcomes. Combining positions that a single line does not offer, although markets such as Asian handicaps often achieve a similar effect in one bet.
Common mistakes
Adding too many selections
Each extra selection lowers the combined price. Cover enough of the field and the possible profit shrinks to almost nothing while the outlay keeps rising. Past a certain point, the bet is close to buying the bookmaker's margin outright.
Ignoring rounding and minimum stakes
Real stakes are rounded to the nearest cent or penny, and some selections may fall below an operator's minimum. The returns then stop being perfectly equal.
Prices moving between bets
Placing three bets one after another takes time. If one price shortens before it is placed, the staking plan no longer balances.
Confusing dutching with arbitrage
Arbitrage involves covering every outcome across different operators at prices that happen to add up to less than 100%. Dutching covers only some outcomes and accepts that the rest lose. They share arithmetic, not purpose.
Frequently asked questions
Is dutching a winning strategy?
No. It only changes how a stake is spread. If the prices carry a margin, the average result stays negative.
Why is it called dutching?
Betting folklore links the name to the Prohibition-era New York racketeer Dutch Schultz. The story is repeated far more often than it is documented, so treat it as a colourful tale rather than settled history.
Dutching makes a betting slip look more organised, but the cost per unit staked is the same as before. Bet only as an adult where the law permits it, and keep the total outlay within what you set aside for entertainment.
Before the first bet
Five quick checks
Run through these before staking anything at all.
- I have worked out the margin on the bet or the RTP of the game
- I know how this operator settles ties, voids and cancelled events
- The amount I am about to stake is money set aside for fun
- I have picked a time to stop, whatever happens
- Gambling of this kind is allowed where I live