Forecast and Tricast Bets: Calling the Finishing Order

A forecast is a bet on which runners will finish first and second in a race. A tricast goes one step further and asks for the first three. Both are common in British and Irish horse and greyhound racing, where they are standard options on the betting slip. In North American racing the same ideas appear in pool betting as the exacta and trifecta. The appeal is a large potential return from a small stake; the catch is how rarely the exact order comes in.

The main versions

The count of bets comes from the number of possible orders. Two runners can finish in two orders; three runners in six; any three from four in twenty-four. Each order is a separate bet at the full unit stake, which is why a combination ticket can cost far more than the unit figure suggests.

How the payout is worked out

Forecast and tricast returns are not usually shown as fixed odds when you place the bet. Fixed-odds bookmakers generally settle them using a formula-based dividend, often called the computer straight forecast and its tricast equivalent, calculated from the starting prices of the runners and the size of the field. Pool versions such as the exacta and trifecta pay a dividend from the money placed in that pool after the operator's deduction. In both cases you will not know the exact return until after the race.

Because the payout depends on the starting prices, a forecast involving two favourites pays modestly, while one featuring outsiders can pay a lot. As explained in our article on the favourite-longshot bias, the outsiders' prices may already carry a heavier share of the margin.

Why the exact order is so hard

Even when you pick the right two runners, they have to arrive in the right sequence. A reverse forecast removes that problem at double the cost. A tricast adds a third runner and the number of possible orders climbs quickly. In a field of eight, there are 56 possible first-two orders and 336 possible first-three orders. Only one of each is correct.

Forecasts compared with other racing bets

• Win bet: one runner to finish first. Simple, with the clearest price.
• Each-way: a win bet plus a place bet. Pays something if the runner places.
• Forecast and tricast: order-dependent bets with formula or pool dividends.
• Dutching: several win bets sized to return the same amount, covered in our guide to dutching.

Things to check before placing one

1. The total stake. Multiply the unit stake by the number of bets the combination creates.
2. Non-runners. If one of your selections is withdrawn, the operator's rules decide whether the bet stands as a smaller version or is voided. Rules vary.
3. Dead heats. Ties for a place affect how returns are split. Check the house rules.
4. Settlement basis. Find out whether the operator uses a computer dividend, a pool dividend or a fixed price.

Frequently asked questions

Is a forecast the same as an exacta?

The selection is the same, first and second in order. The difference is how it is paid: exactas are pool bets, while forecasts with fixed-odds bookmakers are usually settled by formula.

Why does a combination tricast cost so much?

Because every possible order of your selections is a separate bet. Four runners create 24 bets, so a 1-unit line costs 24 units.

Are forecasts only for racing?

They are mainly a racing bet, though some operators offer similar finishing-order markets in other sports with multiple competitors.

Forecasts and tricasts can turn a small stake into a large one in theory, but the exact order rarely lands. Racing bets are for adults where the law permits them, and the total cost of every combination ticket should fit inside the budget you set before the first race.